[{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/ai/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"AI","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"1. March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/de/tags/analyse/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Analyse","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/analysis/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Analysis","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/","section":"arcsaberIT - home","summary":"","title":"arcsaberIT - home","type":"page"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/categories/blog/","section":"Categories","summary":"","title":"Blog","type":"categories"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/categories/","section":"Categories","summary":"","title":"Categories","type":"categories"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/disruption/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Disruption","type":"tags"},{"content":" Is AI making money at all? # Recently I came across a very detailed series of articles1 which, based on a lot of publicly available financial information, concluded that AI simply isn\u0026rsquo;t making money. Not only that, it actually has significant costs and investments involved, don\u0026rsquo;t forget about regular hardware upgrades. The author even accuses OpenAI and Nvidia of deliberately misleading the public by cooking the books.\nNone of the AI companies are profitable # Let\u0026rsquo;s start with the AI companies like OpenAI, none of them are profitable, none. Contrary to what we\u0026rsquo;re used to from googling, every AI query is quite resource intensive, if there will ever be a point where it\u0026rsquo;ll become profitable at all is still unclear.\nNone of the AI customers report impressive numbers # Let\u0026rsquo;s move on to the AI customers. Many or perhaps most managers are forcing AI because they believe that it will save employee costs, for example in the support sector. But from what I know the big revolution didn\u0026rsquo;t happen. Wouldn\u0026rsquo;t those managers not gladly share data to prove how many costs they saved with AI?\nWould you use AI for serious tasks and decisons? # So far the AI revolution has yet to materialize. The most I\u0026rsquo;ve heard is AI as a replacement junior developer who is writing boilerplate code and unit tests quite well, but is fundamentally untrustworthy for serious tasks. Would you let AI do serious tasks for you? Would you let your managers consult AI for serious decisions? Personally I wouldn\u0026rsquo;t.\nAddendum 21st of March, 2026: According to a Goldman-Sachs-analyst2 AI contributed “basically zero” to U.S. economic growth in 2025.\nhttps://www.wheresyoured.at\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/02/23/ai-economic-growth-gdp-mirage\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\n","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/posts/is-ai-making-money/","section":"Posts","summary":"Recent financial reports are making AI companies look like massive investment graves.","title":"Is AI making money at all?","type":"posts"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/categories/post/","section":"Categories","summary":"","title":"Post","type":"categories"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/posts/","section":"Posts","summary":"","title":"Posts","type":"posts"},{"content":"","date":"1 March 2026","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Tags","type":"tags"},{"content":" AI As General Intelligence: A Disappointment # When OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022, a new era seemed to be dawning. Suddenly, almost all digital professions were under threat of being replaced by AI. Facebook had to quickly bury their Metaverse under great pressure and invest more in AI, and so did Google, which only had primitive AI in comparison. Bureaucrats were even invented to regulate AI, although it works like a black box and the bureaucrats will always be two or three steps behind the development.\nWhere AI actually made an impact # In some areas, AI does indeed have the predicted effect. Images, videos and music can be generated extremely quickly. Where previously you might have had to pay someone on Upwork or Fiverr, you now often get a solid work of art very quickly, at least for the beginning or a concept. AI is also good at commenting on existing code and searching given text for information. In other words, anything that is restricted to a limited area of existing data and information.\nAI hallucinations: the risk of embarrassing yourself as a clown # Like everyone else, I created a ChatGPT account and asked various questions. I was surprised at how competently ChatGPT answered a grammar question about a minor language. When I showed the history to a linguist, however, he said it was complete nonsense.\nI had suffered my first AI hallucination, an existential experience. If I hadn\u0026rsquo;t asked the linguist, I would still believe this AI lie and perhaps many others today. With such false knowledge, you risk embarrassing yourself when talking to people who are knowledgeable on the topic. As a result, you have to check that every AI answer is correct. But then you can just do your research and leave out ChatGPT anyway.\nWhat\u0026rsquo;s the future of AI? # One might have thought that AI was constantly evolving linearly or exponentially, but at the end of 2024, the news came1 that development was becoming slower and more complex. Recently it was said that AI actually only memorizes an enormous amount of rules2. AI in the sense of a general intelligence, which could replace the mental power of an average person seems a long way off. In addition, the Chinese company DeepSeek launched an AI model in early 2025 that is similarly competent to ChatGPT, but far less resource-hungry.\nHowever, AI is now indispensable in specific, narrowly defined areas, especially when 100% precision is not required. Summarizing articles and books, for example, or translating. However, you have to carefully curate the data sets you feed the AI with in order to achieve quality. The idea that you can simply give an AI Reddit as a data set, for example, and then get a smart, human mind has proven to be a delusion.\nhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\nhttps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-ai-thinks-356969f8\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\n","date":"27 April 2025","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/posts/ai-a-disappointment/","section":"Posts","summary":"With the hype surrounding ChatGPT, AI seemed set to become an unstoppable, disruptive force. But the big change failed to materialize.","title":"AI As General Intelligence: A Disappointment","type":"posts"},{"content":"","date":"17 December 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/efficiency/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Efficiency","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"17. December 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/de/tags/effizienz/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Effizienz","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"17 December 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/enshittification/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Enshittification","type":"tags"},{"content":" Software Architecture - You Need Knowledge Of The Human Nature # I once saw a custom CRM software for a small company that required about 15 steps of manual input to create a new customer. And that was before you even got to entering relevant information such as name, street etc. About 80% of the time it took to create a new customer was always the same steps for each customer. So something was simply programmed to create a new customer without any afterthought.\nSoftware can just be really bad and stay that way forever # Of course, the software was hated by its users, mistakes were regularly made that later had to be corrected by someone. The 15 steps could easily have been programmed as a default for newly created customers, but they were not. Such half-hearted and short-sighted software can survive for years and decades without anyone ever questioning it.\nProgress through automation and experience # Software must not be so inefficient, because users are people and not soulless golems. And software can even be fun if it does the work for the user instead of the other way around. To achieve this, in addition to systems analysis, a sound knowledge of human nature is required in order to recognize pitfalls in use as early as the planning stage. Ultimately, however, you have to involve the users to find out whether they are using the software as planned and whether there are ways to make things even more efficient. Because nothing beats the accumulated experience of many iterations of specific work steps.\nEnshittification: the regression of the software experience # It should also be noted that there is still the possibility that software may even deteriorate over time. This phenomenon is called enshittification1 and usually affects commercial software. However, the problem that the user experience deteriorates over time can also affect the workplace. The development of the Windows environment, unnecessary additional software and incorrect IT advice are to be mentioned here. As always, the solution is simply competence.\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification\u0026#160;\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\n","date":"17 December 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/posts/software-architecture/","section":"Posts","summary":"Software is mostly seen as a stale and pale necessity, but it should be designed as an efficient tool for actual humans.","title":"Software Architecture - You Need Knowledge Of The Human Nature","type":"posts"},{"content":"","date":"17 December 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/software-architecture/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Software-Architecture","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"17. December 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/de/tags/software-architektur/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Software-Architektur","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"4 September 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/structures/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Structures","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"4. September 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/de/tags/strukturen/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Strukturen","type":"tags"},{"content":"","date":"4 September 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/tags/systems-analysis/","section":"Tags","summary":"","title":"Systems Analysis","type":"tags"},{"content":" Systems Analysis - What It\u0026rsquo;s All About # Making successful decisions in today\u0026rsquo;s world, where we are constantly available and constantly bombarded with information, requires a special art of utmost importance: observing, sitting down and thinking: “what exactly is happening here and why?”. That is why the aim of systems analysis is to achieve a crystal-clear, scientific understanding.\nWhy does it work? # Systems analysis is a philosophical-analytical activity that aims to explore and understand the entirety of a business process or company. This almost always reveals obvious inefficiencies, because normally nobody voluntarily undertakes fundamental analyses. Partly because everyday life takes up enough time and effort anyway, partly because of an irrational aversion to the possible things that could be uncovered.\nWhat does it find? # When analyzing businesses, it\u0026rsquo;s very easy to find processes and structures that have simply grown naturally or are practically based on hearsay. This not only has direct financial consequences, but also social ones, such as negative emotions and a bad mood among the workforce, who often point the finger at each other. The cost of inefficient processes is actually enormous, as the problems have to be fixed with bare manpower, which is a waste of operational resources and human lifetime as such.\nWhy can\u0026rsquo;t just anyone do it? # The independence of the analyst is also of the utmost importance. Only if it is possible to see things clearly and without vested interests, neither one\u0026rsquo;s own nor those of third parties, will the analysis be successful. It must be completely irrelevant whether the other person is a recognized, successful businessman or “a nobody”. In this respect, one of the most important mottos of Systems Analysis is: stay cool.\n","date":"4 September 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/posts/systems-analysis/","section":"Posts","summary":"Systems Analysis permeates structures and finds the essential and unnecessary in business processes, before the really important decisions are made.","title":"Systems Analysis - What It's All About","type":"posts"},{"content":"arcsaberIT by Csaba Molnár\nc/o Block Services\nStuttgarter Str. 106\n70736 Fellbach\nGermany\nE-Mail: contact@arcsaber.it\n","date":"17 August 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/imprint/","section":"arcsaberIT - home","summary":"arcsaberIT by Csaba Molnár\nc/o Block Services\nStuttgarter Str. 106\n70736 Fellbach\nGermany\nE-Mail: contact@arcsaber.it","title":"imprint","type":"page"},{"content":"This site doesn\u0026rsquo;t use any tracking and isn\u0026rsquo;t saving any user data.\n","date":"17 August 2024","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/privacy/","section":"arcsaberIT - home","summary":"This site doesn\u0026rsquo;t use any tracking and isn\u0026rsquo;t saving any user data.","title":"privacy","type":"page"},{"content":"","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/authors/","section":"Authors","summary":"","title":"Authors","type":"authors"},{"content":"","externalUrl":null,"permalink":"/series/","section":"Series","summary":"","title":"Series","type":"series"}]